Predicting the 85th Academy Awards

Well, we are 8 days out from the 85th rendition of the Oscars. I still haven't seen all the major films this year, but you do not have to in order to predict these things. After a year-long hiatus, I am here today to submit my predictions for public scrutiny. My track record is pretty good (knock on wood), so feel free to consult these for an Oscar pool.

Or better yet...

In the comments section, post your own predictions. We will be doing all 24 "merit" categories. For a full list, please click here. Any sort of tiebreaker is TBD. If you want to participate, please post your comment by 6pm CST on Oscar Sunday (Feb. 24). I will revisit this page at that time and lock all comments to avoid editing/submissions after the deadline. However, feel free to come back and edit your predictions any time before then.

***Please do not brag about how well you did if you do not submit them. It's one thing to predict the Oscars; it's another thing entirely to go on record with your predictions. So join in with the rest of us in this little competition. Bragging is for closers, only.

1st prize: Not a Cadillac Eldorado

2nd prize: Not a set of steak knives

3rd prize is you're not fired.

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Before I list my predictions, I will give a few general thoughts about why this year reminds me of the 13th Academy Awards:

• Lincoln this year is The Grapes of Wrath from 1940. It's the critic favorite, and as such is most likely to go down in history as the best film of the year. (Sorry, fans of Amour.) Furthermore, like John Ford and Grapes, it's under the direction of a cinematic giant in Spielberg. Lincoln was also the early favorite before Argo's momentum gain. Rebecca was Hitchcock's first American film and is considered by many to be his first movie that announced him as a big-time filmmaker. Much like Ben Affleck--even though I loved The Town.
• Django Unchained reminds me of The Great Dictator. While The Great Dictator is a little more timely, Django is a more uncompromising condemnation of historical horror. Tarantino is just as revered by audiences today as Chaplin was in his day, and both films are the biggest box office draws respectively for their auteurs.
• Since Silver Linings Playbook is technically considered a romantic comedy, I'll just go ahead and stretch a comparison to The Philadelphia Story, although I do so very hesitantly. Maybe I can justify this further by offering both films as early entries for two rising stars, Katharine Hepburn and Jennifer Lawrence. (To be fair, Hepburn had already won an Oscar for her first nomination.) Also, both George Cukor and David O. Russell are known as "actors' directors." That is, their films tend to garner many acting awards/nominations.
• Our Town and Les Miserables are considered very faithful adaptations of their acclaimed theatrical sources.
• The Long Voyage Home and The Life of Pi are both... set at sea?

I'll stop now before it gets any more painful to read.

Without further ado, my predictions:

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

Best Writing - Original Screenplay: Amour (Michael Haneke)

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Best Film Editing: Argo

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi

Best Production Design: Life of Pi

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Best Original Score: Life of Pi

Best Original Song: "Skyfall" - Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Documentary - Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary - Short Subject: Inocente

Best Live Action Short Film: Death of a Shadow

Best Animated Short Film: Paperman

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If Argo beats Lincoln for Best Picture, it will be the same upset as Rebecca: the new blood (Affleck) beating out the established master and critical favorite (Spielberg). Plus, Argo will probably walk home with very few other Oscars (Rebecca only won 2 total). Life of Pi may have the most at the end of the night for its technical achievements, like The Thief of Bagdad. And if Argo wins Best Picture without wins from Alan Arkin or Chris Terrio, it will be the first film since Rebecca to win Best Picture without wins for acting, directing, or writing.

I'm looking forward to your predictions!

EDIT:  Easily my worst year predicting the Oscars. Sorry you had to endure reading these picks. I originally had Ang Lee for Director and Lincoln for Production Design but second-guessed myself for whatever reason.